German GDP to contract by 0.2% in Q4

Posted by admin on February 24th, 2012

The gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by German 0.2% in the fourth quarter, after rising 0.6% between July and September, confirmed Friday the federal Office ; Deral Statistics.

German growth has slowed to 1.5% annual pace in the fourth quarter after 2.6% last quarter, hampered by a slowdown in foreign trade and consumption.

Exports fell 0.8% in the quarter, after growing 2.6% last quarter.

The net trade subtracted 0.3 percentage points to GDP in the fourth quarter, while domestic demand added 0.1 percentage points, says the Office of Statistics, whose data de ; finitives were fitted to the seasonal values. 

The German budget deficit fell to 1.0% of GDP in 2011 against 4.3% in 2010.

The Greek government approves the new austerity measures

Posted by admin on February 18th, 2012

The Greek government on Saturday approved the final version of the austerity measures demanded by the EU and the IMF to release an aid package of 130 billion euros .

The government approval was a formality after the adoption, last week, a series of measures aimed at saving 325 million euros including through reductions of wages, salaries and pensions.

"These austerity measures were approved unanimously," said one minister, who requested anonymity. 

The government during the same meeting set for March 8 opening date of the exchange of Greek sovereign bonds held by private creditors, with the hope to complete the operation before March 11, said an official source.

This exchange will result in a discount of 70% of the real value of debt held by private investors.

The Greek government hopes that these initiatives will enable the adoption of the bailout by member countries of the eurozone at their summit in Brussels on Monday.

"The Greeks did everything they could and we are committed to keeping our commitments," said Minister of Public Order, Christos Papoutsis. 

Prime Minister Lucas Papademos said in a statement regretted having to solve a new lower pensions but assured that the impact of this measure would remain limited as it only concerns a pension exceeding 1,300 euros.

"We all agree that the support of economic activity is our priority," he added, without specifying what measures he intends to eventually take to restore growth.

A poll for the Sunday newspaper Realnews, 72.7% of Greeks want a continuation of Greece in the euro area, but only half of them think it will get there.

The doublespeak of Francois Hollande on finance

Posted by admin on February 15th, 2012

Not easy being a socialist candidate in times of budget deficit. On the one hand, we must gather all left, and the other not to antagonize the financial markets, with power to increase the cost of debt. Francois Hollande in his first big campaign rally, Sunday, Jan. 22 at Le Bourget.

Finance the war against Francois Hollande is it already over? Having dug up the hatchet in January at Le Bourget, the PS presidential candidate seems ready to smoke the peace pipe in the British press when he denied any "aggression" against the financial markets.

It's early in the week that François Hollande has raised the white flag. Before going to London, he in effect gave an interview to several British correspondents including the Telegraph, the Financial Times and the Guardian. To reassure all these people came to interview in Paris – and at the same time readers of the City-François Hollande has tried convincing: no it is not regarded in France as a very left financial regulation. And no, the France of 1981 has nothing to do with that of 2012, where "there are more communists," he said. Since the Guardian has restored the full quote by adding the flat "or very little." But the little phrase made noise in France where she has raised the ire of the Communist Party and part of the left. And drew attention to the soothing message of one who presented himself as the exterminating angel of finance.

To please these ears International, Francois Hollande has indeed put barrels of water in his wine. He did not hesitate to recall that during the fifteen where they were in power, the Socialists had liberalized the economy, open markets to finance and privatization. According to him, he and Obama would also have very close positions on the topic: "One could say that Obama and I have the same advisors."

Finance, enemy number one on the inside …

A speech that contrasts clearly with the speech of January 22 Bourget, in which he had made finance enemy number one, it had to be slaughtered at all costs. This financing "nameless, faceless, non-party" but "nevertheless governs us" and took control of our lives …

At the time all the political commentators asserted: Francois Hollande had managed a grand coming out on the left! The verbal attack angered the bankers, tired of being stigmatized. And they came with a program: creation of a tax on financial transactions, separation of deposit banks and investment banks, creating a special tax for financial institutions, or limiting bonuses. Ultimately, however, nothing really revolutionary. But the strong speech perfectly met the expectations of the electorate to the left.

… partner and to be struck out

So why this double standard? Francois Hollande is a campaign from the first round of presidential elections in which he must collect the left where it calls for more measures to support growth. This does not prevent him from being convinced that deficit reduction is essential. His lecture on the encryption program, far from lyrical flights of Bourget failing to have been accurate on spending cuts, was already a sign. But he also knows that the markets are still the law in fiscal policy. To put them back is to take the risk of skyrocketing interest rates on the French debt.

But some recent indicators have come to confirm it was time to make peace with investors. A report by economist Erik Nielsen of UniCredit noted in particular the fear of the markets to see the PS candidate cross the steps of the Elysee. Concerned, the prospect of renegotiating the EU Stability Pact to avoid the constitutional goal of balancing public finances. Hence the signals sent through appeasement of the international press. However not sure whether they were intended to be discussed in the hexagon. Which is not without problems.

Olivier Dartigolles for example, spokesman for the PCF, the "kneeling" before the City of Holland "are hard to the left". A view shared by Marie-George Buffet and Jean-Luc Melenchon, who both joked statements of the candidate face to British journalists. "You can not simultaneously be the candidate of the City and the candidate cities", summed up Wednesday Hervé Gattegno, editor of the Point.

Furthermore, this game is subtle to say the least on how to reduce deficits, could also turn against him. It is said the markets they are non-partisan. Maybe, but they are adamant on one point: the deficit reduction plans should be adjusted to the nearest euro!

Wall Street opens higher, optimism after the vote Greek

Posted by admin on February 14th, 2012

Wall Street opened higher Monday after the vote of austerity measures by the Greek Parliament, investors wanting to believe that this new step will move towards a resolution of the debt crisis in Greece.

In early trade, the Dow Jones gained 0.48% (61.76 points) to 12,862.99 points. The Standard & Poor's, which was accused last week its first weekly decline in six weeks, is 0.64% (8.65 points) to 1,351.29 points while the Nasdaq composite advance 0.81% (23.57 points) to 2,927.45.

"There was a little apprehensive but the fact is that (the Greek plan) was approved and it has clarified many things to contracts involving the risk that Greece represents for them, "Justice Peter Kenny, managing director of Knight Capital.

Side values, as Apple has climbed above $ 500 at the opening (1.65%), reaching a new record. 

The group has stepped up to the apple its offensive Monday against Samsung Electronics in the patent war between them, by attacking the Nexus range of smartphones equipped with the latest version of Android, the operating system from Google.

Wall Street ends up slightly, pending Greece

Posted by admin on February 8th, 2012

Wall Street finished slightly higher Wednesday in anticipation of a possible breakthrough in the Greek case, the Dow is now at its highest and four-year high yesterday.

The latter won 0.04% or 5.75 points, to 12,883.95. The S & P-500, wider, took 2.91 points, or 0.22%, to 1349.96. The Nasdaq Composite Index advanced 11.78 points on his side of (0.41%) to 2,915.86.

Tuesday, the Dow finished at its highest level since May 2008, focused since late 2011 by the actions of central banks to support economic activity and by a series of macro-é U.S. ECONOMIC deemed favorable.

The three party leaders of the Greek government coalition are currently meeting to try to agree on the reforms demanded by donors in Athens in return for a second ; help me plan. 

The President of the Eurogroup, Jean-Claude Juncker, said Wednesday in a statement it had convened a meeting of finance ministers of the eurozone on Thursday in Brussels, meeting that should show up decide the outline of the new aid plan for Athens.

The leaders of the European Central Bank (ECB) remain divided on the potential contribution of the central bank to restructure Greek debt, two sources said on Wednesday the euro area.

"It will be a long and difficult process, as it has been from the beginning, but market participants want to see further," said Tim Ghriskey, Investment Officer at Solaris Asset Management , about the cautious optimism prevailing among market players. 

The Dow Jones jumped 21% since the beginning of October and again 80% of the ground lost during the down cycle covering the period 2007-early 2009. The benchmark index of Wall Street is now only 10% of its historic high reached in October 2007.

Energy stocks weighed on the coast after U.S. crude has erased its gains in the wake of the announcement of an increase in stocks of crude oil and gasoline States United, with the sector index yielding 0.55% and 0.64% ExxonMobil to 85.32 dollars.

The action Walt Disney rose 0.71% to 41.27 dollars after the media group has reported better than expected quarterly results.

The title Polo Ralph Lauren soared 9.18% to 171.49 dollars after better than expected quarterly figures of the clothing manufacturer, who also revised upwards its margin guidance. 

The action McDonald's has sold 0.85% to 100.05 dollars despite the announcement of a more-than-expected global sales of restaurants open at least a year better than expected in January.

The title Time Warner took 0.03% to 38.11 dollars after the media group released a better than expected quarterly profit, thanks to its re ; cable networks and franchises of the last episode of Harry Potter.

Of the 315 companies that, before the close of Wall Street, have published their quarterly figures, 61.0% reported better than expected results.

The Board of Lagardère stagnated in 2011

Posted by admin on February 7th, 2012

Lagardère Tuesday reported a turnover slightly below expectations for 2011, hit by the decline in revenues in publishing, and announced ; significant writedowns of around 900 million euros.

The media group has gone through a year 2011 marked heckled by two warnings on its results, a controversy over its leader Arnaud Lagardère and a fall of over 30% of his title scholarship. 

"In 2011, taking into account both an economic and market environment deteriorated, and other performances (recorded in the second half) and prospects for the industry Unlimited, should lead impairment in value of a significant amount, "the group said in a statement, referring to its division dedicated to sport and entertainment.

Lagardère adds that he also revised down the value in its accounts of its 20% stake in Canal + France.

The full year, revenue came out to 7.657 billion euros, against 7.966 billion during the previous year, an increase of 0.2% on a comparable basis. 

The Thomson Reuters consensus I / B / E / S brought out a turnover of 7.684 billion euros on the basis of estimates of 18 analysts.

The group, which will publish its full year results on March 8, confirmed its forecast of a decline of 5 to 12% of its recurring EBIT before associates (EBIT) for 2011 Media .

The stock closed Monday at 1.51% to 23.1450 euros. Since the beginning of the year, it was up 13.5%, compared with increases of 4.62% of the media sector index.

Remove the relief of charges to destroy a million jobs

Posted by admin on February 3rd, 2012

Between 400,000 and 1.1 million jobs would be destroyed in a few years if we removed all the relief employer contributions on low wages, a study by the Treasury. A sardine canning factory near Porto

Between 400,000 and 1.1 million jobs would be destroyed in a few years if we removed all the relief employer contributions on low wages, according to a study document issued by the Ministry of Labour. This document commits only the authors (DARES and officials to the Treasury) attempts to assess the employment effects of reduced social charges on low wages conducted since 1993.

In the first scenario (with the assumption that the tax has a high impact), it is "from 550,000 to 1,100,000 jobs would be destroyed." In a second case (where yields effects on employment would have been reduced by half), the estimate is between 400,000 and 800,000 jobs. Implementation of relief "had a clear impact on the evolution of the relative cost of labor at minimum wage." The "very substantial reduction in the relative cost of labor at the minimum wage was accompanied by a stabilization of the share of unskilled employment in total employment," the authors observe.

Over the period 1993-1997, the relief "would have to create or save between 200,000 and 400,000 jobs." A net cost per job of relief (that accounts for employee social security contributions and lower spending of welfare benefits and unemployment benefits) "between 8,000 and 28,000 euros," the study said. In 2009, the relief arrangements in employer payroll taxes on low wages represented a gross cost of € 22.2 billion for the state.

These devices are the result of "two great waves of relief", the first since 1993 to reduce labor costs in the vicinity of the minimum wage (relief "Balladur" then "Juppé"). The second from 1998, to offset the impact on labor costs of the implementation of 35 hours and then the unification of the different scales of relief ("Loi Fillon" of 2003). Studies of the 2003 law "suggests that the additional cuts over the period 2003-2005 has broadly offset the negative impact on employment of upward convergence of minimum wages from the RTT."

The study authors do not venture, however, to accurately assess the effects of devices on wages, existing studies are sometimes contradictory.

Posted by admin on November 28th, 2011

France is already in recession and is expected to slow growth of 0.3% in 2012 according to the OECD considers it essential to save 0.4% of additional GDP. 8 billion euros.

The OECD has drastically revised down its growth forecast Monday for France, which would be barely positive in 2012 after a "short" recession, a situation that "requires" a new anti-deficit to take the international commitment of Paris. Far from the 1% growth still officially expected by the French government next year, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development is no longer considering a meager increase of 0.3% of GDP in its latest economic forecast delivery biannual. Six months ago, it expected 2.1% but still on the deepening crisis in the euro area has been through it.

The recession that know France in the fourth quarter 2011 and first quarter 2012 would be "small scale", according to the organization. But faced with these projections, the poorest to date of an international institution, it urges Paris to a new fiscal tightening. "Given the slowdown in economic growth and the increasing burden of debt," the goal of returning the public deficit to 4.5% of GDP in 2012 "will require new measures of fiscal consolidation," says she said.

"We would suggest a further fiscal consolidation to achieve the desired objective," confirmed its chief economist Pier Carlo Padoan, during a press conference.

Posted by admin on November 23rd, 2011

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has extended its credit instruments Tuesday and announced the creation of a new liquidity line to six months to support the country weakened by the European budget crisis.

The IMF said that the new line Precaution and Liquidity would act as "insurance against future shocks and as a window for short-term liquidity to meet the needs."

This new line will provide access to liquidity to finance six months, up to five times the quota of the member country concerned, and may also be used as part of an arrangement for a period of 12 to 24 months with this time access up to 10 times the quota of the country.

The IMF also created a new Financial Instrument for Rapid countries with balance of payments is facing urgent needs due to "external shocks" such as natural disasters.

"We acted quickly and the new instruments will respond more quickly and efficiently for the benefit of all members (IMF)," said Executive Director of the IMF, Christine Lagarde said in a statement.

Posted by admin on November 9th, 2011

The forecast of zero growth of the French economy in the fourth quarter by the Banque de France confirms a slowdown sustainable activity that weakens the hypothesis government and increases the likelihood of a new austerity plan next year.

The forecast released Wednesday, in line with that issued by INSEE in October, comes two days after the announcement of a second austerity plan in less than three months and a G20 summit haunted by the specter of a recession.

Weak growth, zero or negative, means that tax revenues will be lower than expected and higher spending, the financial statements being greater demand.The French economy grew by 0.9% in the first quarter and was flat in the second.

The Institute of Statistics said in October forecast growth of 0.3% in the third quarter and a stagnation in the fourth, according to the assumptions that should enable it to achieve the government forecast for 2011 (1.75%).

ECONOMY TO START OFF 2012

But the achievements of growth for 2012 would be only 0.2%, six times less than at the end of 2010, and it would be even lower if growth in the third quarter was only 0.1% as the has provided the Bank of France.


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