Not easy being a socialist candidate in times of budget deficit. On the one hand, we must gather all left, and the other not to antagonize the financial markets, with power to increase the cost of debt. Francois Hollande in his first big campaign rally, Sunday, Jan. 22 at Le Bourget.
Finance the war against Francois Hollande is it already over? Having dug up the hatchet in January at Le Bourget, the PS presidential candidate seems ready to smoke the peace pipe in the British press when he denied any "aggression" against the financial markets.
It's early in the week that François Hollande has raised the white flag. Before going to London, he in effect gave an interview to several British correspondents including the Telegraph, the Financial Times and the Guardian. To reassure all these people came to interview in Paris – and at the same time readers of the City-François Hollande has tried convincing: no it is not regarded in France as a very left financial regulation. And no, the France of 1981 has nothing to do with that of 2012, where "there are more communists," he said. Since the Guardian has restored the full quote by adding the flat "or very little." But the little phrase made noise in France where she has raised the ire of the Communist Party and part of the left. And drew attention to the soothing message of one who presented himself as the exterminating angel of finance.
To please these ears International, Francois Hollande has indeed put barrels of water in his wine. He did not hesitate to recall that during the fifteen where they were in power, the Socialists had liberalized the economy, open markets to finance and privatization. According to him, he and Obama would also have very close positions on the topic: "One could say that Obama and I have the same advisors."
Finance, enemy number one on the inside …
A speech that contrasts clearly with the speech of January 22 Bourget, in which he had made finance enemy number one, it had to be slaughtered at all costs. This financing "nameless, faceless, non-party" but "nevertheless governs us" and took control of our lives …
At the time all the political commentators asserted: Francois Hollande had managed a grand coming out on the left! The verbal attack angered the bankers, tired of being stigmatized. And they came with a program: creation of a tax on financial transactions, separation of deposit banks and investment banks, creating a special tax for financial institutions, or limiting bonuses. Ultimately, however, nothing really revolutionary. But the strong speech perfectly met the expectations of the electorate to the left.
… partner and to be struck out
So why this double standard? Francois Hollande is a campaign from the first round of presidential elections in which he must collect the left where it calls for more measures to support growth. This does not prevent him from being convinced that deficit reduction is essential. His lecture on the encryption program, far from lyrical flights of Bourget failing to have been accurate on spending cuts, was already a sign. But he also knows that the markets are still the law in fiscal policy. To put them back is to take the risk of skyrocketing interest rates on the French debt.
But some recent indicators have come to confirm it was time to make peace with investors. A report by economist Erik Nielsen of UniCredit noted in particular the fear of the markets to see the PS candidate cross the steps of the Elysee. Concerned, the prospect of renegotiating the EU Stability Pact to avoid the constitutional goal of balancing public finances. Hence the signals sent through appeasement of the international press. However not sure whether they were intended to be discussed in the hexagon. Which is not without problems.
Olivier Dartigolles for example, spokesman for the PCF, the "kneeling" before the City of Holland "are hard to the left". A view shared by Marie-George Buffet and Jean-Luc Melenchon, who both joked statements of the candidate face to British journalists. "You can not simultaneously be the candidate of the City and the candidate cities", summed up Wednesday Hervé Gattegno, editor of the Point.
Furthermore, this game is subtle to say the least on how to reduce deficits, could also turn against him. It is said the markets they are non-partisan. Maybe, but they are adamant on one point: the deficit reduction plans should be adjusted to the nearest euro!
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